Alberta released new revised data regarding the projected trends and health impacts of the novel coronavirus in the province and added a new “low” modelling scenario Tuesday.

‘Probable’ Alberta COVID-19 model predicts 400-3,100 deaths: Kenney

Under the new low forecast, an estimated 298 Albertans will require hospitalization and 95 will require critical care when the virus reaches its peak.

“If current trends continue, this scenario will become the most likely scenario for Alberta,” the government said.

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Updated modelling scenarios continue to estimate that Alberta’s outbreak will reach its peak in late May.

Premier Jason Kenney said hospitalizations and admissions to intensive care units remain “well below” the initial model predictions.

“The health-care system continues to be able to manage – quite capably,” Kenney said.

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“While we’re a ways off from returning to a normal life, we’re working around the clock on our relaunch strategy,” he said.

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The province continues to watch several numbers while considering the relaunch plan: the number of hospitalizations, the number of ICU admissions, the rate of growth of confirmed COVID-19 cases and the confirmed cases as a percentage of total tests.

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Kenney said more details on the relaunch plan would be released “later this week.”

Probable Alberta COVID-19 model predicts 400-3,100 deaths: Kenney

Probable Alberta COVID-19 model predicts 400-3,100 deaths: Kenney

On Tuesday, Alberta confirmed 154 new cases, bringing the provincial total to 4,850.

Five more people died from the virus.

“There have now been 80 deaths in our province,” Dr. Deena Hinshaw said. “This include two deaths at continuing care facilities.

“I want to offer my heart-felt sympathies… COVID-19 can be deadly… no one is immune.”

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As of Tuesday, there are 82 Albertans in hospital, 21 of whom were in ICU.

Close to 500 Alberta health-care workers have tested positive for COVID-19

She said there are 759 confirmed cases in workers at the Cargill meat plant and 249 cases in employees and contractors at the JBS plant in Brooks, Alta.

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Alberta reports 216 additional COVID-19 cases, 2 deaths; outbreak confirmed at First Nation

Alberta COVID-19 Case Model… by Emily Mertz on Scribd

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